NOVEMBER 3, 2026
The historian gave his final prediction. / PEDRO UGARTE / AFP via Getty Images
Presidential guru Allan Lichtman has revealed his final prediction on the upcoming midterm election.
With President Donald Trump and the GOP’s approval rating at historic lows, Lichtman, who correctly predicted all but one presidential election since 1984, has given his verdict.
“When the approval rating for a president is as low as Trump’s, on average the White House party loses 40 House and six Senate seats,” he told The Times of London. “It’s not a prediction; that’s just showing how heavily the winds are blowing against Republicans.
“The other thing I look at is not just the horse-race polls, but the generic congressional poll, and that’s very heavily favouring Democrats, by seven to 11 points. That’s pretty predictive, more so than the individual race polls,” he explained.
He explained that Democratic “enthusiasm” is much higher than Republicans’ this cycle, which can only help the party. He also noted that Democrats have been voting early at higher rates than Republican voters, meaning to him that “So far, it looks pretty good for Democrats.”
“I have predicted a 67 per cent chance that the Democrats would take back the Senate,” Lichtman told the outlet. “I think the most likely but not necessarily definitive outcome is 51-49. This is not based on a model, understand; it’s just based on my knowledge of history and current politics.”
Of the states that could be potential pick-ups for Democrats in the Senate, Litchman explained that he had a good feeling about Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas, but said he was unsure about Michigan in the race between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers.
Litchman is best known for developing what he calls the “13 Keys,” which he says are 13 points that can show who will become the next president. But Litchman explained that his tool can also predict midterm elections.
Trump is polling at historic lows. / Umit Bektas / REUTERS
“We are in a strange time but when you look at situations where there’s an unpopular war and the president’s approval rating is low, 1966 is a great example,” he said. “Lyndon Johnson [a Democratic president] had just won one of the biggest landslide victories in 1964. But then things were going bad for the country, the [Vietnam] war was going sour. Urban riots were sweeping the country and Democrats took a huge pasting in 1966.”
Still, his assessment of the state of play comes just after he incorrectly predicted that former Vice President Kamala Harris would win the 2024 presidential election. His prediction that Al Gore would win the 2000 election has also come under question.
Courtesy: The Daily Beast
