APRIL 4, 2024
Donald Trump Joe Biden Polls Before Election. – Photo-illustration by Newsweek/Getty
A new poll shows President Joe Biden holding a double-digit lead over former President Donald Trump in the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania seven months before the general election.
The survey, conducted by Franklin & Marshall College between March 20 and 31, revealed that Biden leads Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee for the 2024 presidential election, with 48 percent of the vote share, compared to 38 percent. This marks a large increase since February, when the company’s polling showed Biden leading Trump by only one percentage point, on 43 percent to 42 percent.
The Context
Pennsylvania is a key swing state. In the 2020 election, Biden won the state by some 80,000 votes, winning it back from Trump, who in 2016 broke the state’s blue streak for the first time in 24 years.
Only twice between 1932 and 1988 has a presidential candidate been able to win the White House without carrying Pennsylvania. No Democrat has been elected president without the state since 1948.
What We Know
The Franklin & Marshall College poll showed that Biden and Trump are both still not viewed favorably by the majority of Pennsylvanians.
Forty-two percent view Biden in a positive light compared to 57 percent who see him unfavorably. Meanwhile, 39 percent of respondents see Trump positively, while 60 percent in the state hold a negative view of him. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 4.0 percentage points.
However, Biden has received less positive polling in other swing states and there are still months to go until the election.
Newsweek reached out to representatives for Trump and Biden via email for comment.
Views
Todd Landman, a professor of political science at the School of Politics and International Relations at the University of Nottingham said the poll was “an outlier” that “may give some comfort to the Biden campaign.”
“This poll is an outlier compared to the other polls of the seven swing states, where Trump is either leading (above the margin of error) or very close to support for Biden,” Landman told Newsweek.
“The Wall Street Journal has recently released polling data that show Trump leads in six of the seven states, including Pennsylvania, so the Franklin and Marshall is a new result that may give some comfort to the Biden campaign. There are caveats, however, in reading too much into one poll,” he said.
“First, we are still seven months out from election day, where anything can happen that will sway voters in either direction, including the US border problem, the war in Ukraine, Israel-Gaza, abortion, and Trump’s ongoing legal challenges.
“Second, the Franklin and Marshall poll is one of many in a market of polling that is highly variable and volatile. Pennsylvania is a crucial swing state that Biden won in 2020 with strong Democratic support in the large cities and surrounding areas of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh and strong Trump support in the more rural areas.”
What’s Next
Pennsylvania takes to the polls on April 23 for the state’s presidential primary elections.
Courtesy: Newsweek
