JULY 15, 2026
Traffic slows down along the North-South Arterial in Utica, NY during a lake effect snow storm on Friday, November 28, 2025. – Daniel DeLoach/Utica Observer-Dispatch
Last winter arrived early across parts of the United States, with November snowstorms, early blizzard warnings and even flakes reaching places like Florida before Thanksgiving. The season featured repeated waves of Arctic air colliding with moisture-rich storm systems, creating several rounds of disruptive winter weather.
Now, meteorologists are watching whether a rapidly strengthening Super El Niño could help set up another active winter pattern. Strong El Niño events can reshape the jet stream, strengthening the southern storm track and increasing the potential for moisture-rich systems across parts of the United States.
Historically, strong El Niño events have also been linked to an increased chance of stratospheric warming, which can disrupt the polar vortex and allow Arctic air to spill farther south; when paired with moisture, winter storms can quickly emerge.
That has some forecasters questioning whether the U.S. could see another early start to winter, with stronger storms and colder outbreaks possible if the pattern comes together.
Why this Super El Niño could bring early winter
Typically, El Niño’s strongest influence on the atmosphere emerges during late fall and winter, as warming in the tropical Pacific becomes more established. According to Severe Weather Europe, those ocean temperatures are “building at a remarkable pace, setting the stage for a highly active weather pattern as we head into the upcoming cold season.”
“This is important because fall is usually a transition season, with weaker and less organized seasonal patterns,” the analysis states. “But the newest forecast trends suggest a more connected evolution, where the Super El Niño influence just keeps amplifying.”
Super El Niño could begin influencing weather patterns earlier than usual, with a fall setup that more closely resembles a typical El Niño winter, according to the analysis. Forecast models indicate the potential for a stronger jet stream across the southern United States, which could help steer more storm systems and draw additional moisture into the country.
That matters because winter storms need more than just cold air — they also need moisture and a storm track that can bring those ingredients together. A stronger Pacific jet stream can help deliver more moisture into the southern and eastern United States, increasing the potential for wetter and more active weather patterns.
At the same time, Severe Weather Europe’s analysis shows the potential for high pressure to build across Canada. That pattern could help push colder Arctic air farther south into parts of the United States.
“The pattern supports a stronger southern storm track across the United States, while the Canadian high-pressure anomaly can help deflect colder air southward into parts of the central and eastern United States,” the analysis states.
That combination — more moisture moving north along an active storm track and a pathway for colder air to move south — is what has forecasters watching for a more active winter pattern. Additionally, the forecast comparison indicates that the pattern may become stronger as winter progresses, with a colder-air pathway developing across parts of the central and eastern United States by January.
“As the cold air pathway locks into the central and eastern United States by January, it can provide the missing temperature ingredient to mix with an active southern storm track,” the analysis states. “Together, they can significantly raise the potential for strong winter storms and severe cold outbreaks as the season reaches its peak.”
When does fall 2026 begin?
The first official day of fall 2026 is Tuesday, Sept. 22, marking the autumnal equinox in the Northern Hemisphere.
The equinox occurs when the sun crosses the celestial equator, bringing nearly equal amounts of daylight and darkness around the world. After the equinox, days will continue to grow shorter and nights longer across Texas and the rest of the Northern Hemisphere until the winter solstice in December.
For meteorologists, however, fall begins earlier. The meteorological fall season starts Sept. 1 and runs through Nov. 30, aligning with the calendar months used to track seasonal weather patterns.
El Niño potential U.S. effects for fall 2026
A potentially powerful El Niño developing in the Pacific Ocean is drawing attention from climate scientists and long-range forecasters, who are watching how the pattern could influence weather around the globe.
Forecasters say it is still too early to determine exactly how the developing El Niño will affect the country, but past strong events provide clues.
- A wetter South and Southeast: Strong El Niño events often favor above-average precipitation across the southern United States. NOAA found that much of the Southeast experienced wetter-than-average winters during eight of 11 strong El Niño events analyzed.
- More rain and snow possible in California: California often sees wetter conditions during El Niño winters because the southern storm track can become more active. Those conditions can increase the likelihood that atmospheric rivers will bring heavy rain to Southern California and boost mountain snowfall, though scientists emphasize that every El Niño is different.
- Warmer, drier conditions in parts of the North and West: Strong El Niño events have historically favored warmer and drier conditions across parts of the Northwest, Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. That could prolong drought in some areas and increase wildfire concerns if dry conditions persist.
- Hurricane season impacts: El Niño can also influence tropical activity. In the Atlantic, stronger upper-level winds can disrupt developing storms, often reducing hurricane activity. In the eastern Pacific, El Niño typically creates a more favorable environment for tropical storms and hurricanes because of warmer waters, increased low-level spin and reduced wind shear.
- Hawaii wildfire concerns: El Niño’s impacts can also extend beyond the mainland. Increased summer rainfall can encourage grass growth, but if conditions later turn dry, that vegetation can become fuel for wildfires.
When does El Niño start?
El Niño doesn’t start on a fixed date. It begins when sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific warm above average and stay elevated for several months, signaling a shift in both ocean and atmospheric patterns.
They also don’t occur on a strict schedule. They tend to emerge irregularly every two to seven years, depending on how ocean temperatures, wind patterns and broader climate conditions evolve.
Most El Niño events typically form between March and June, strengthen through summer and into fall, peak between November and January, and fade in late winter and spring.
How long does El Niño last?
El Niño is usually a one-season-to-one-year event, not a multi-year climate phase like La Niña can sometimes appear to be in extended cycles, according to NOAA.
In the current outlook, conditions are already present. They are expected to strengthen during the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026–27, suggesting this event could persist from its development phase in 2026 into early 2027 before gradually weakening.
Courtesy: This article originally appeared on USA TODAY
