NOVEMBER 3, 2020
Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform
Who will win the White House? Trump
How many electoral votes will he get? 278
Who will win Florida? Trump
Who will win North Carolina? Trump
Who will win Pennsylvania? We may never know.
Who will win Georgia? Trump
Who will win Texas? Trump
Which party will win the House? Republicans
How many seats will Dems/GOP pick up? 20 seat net pick up for Republicans
Which party will win the Senate? Republicans
How many seats will Dems/GOP pick up? There will be 51 Republicans in new Congress.
Who will win the Senate race in Maine? Sen. Susan Collins (R)
Who will win the Senate race in North Carolina? Sen. Thom Tillis (R)
Who will win the Senate race in Iowa? Sen. Joni Ernst (R)
Who will win the Senate race in Montana? Sen. Steve Daines (R)
Analysis: Neither party ran on an agenda as Ronald Reagan in 1980 or Newt Gingrich did in 1994. Biden has said he would not raise taxes on anyone earning less than $400,000, which would stop any carbon/gas/energy tax or the ObamaCare penalty tax or bringing back the alternative minimum tax or undoing the income tax rate cuts of 2017. Trump suggests more of the same, but muted his own calls for school choice, more tax reduction or entitlement reform. Mail-in ballots (with the exception of ballot harvesting) do not necessarily benefit the Democrats. The demographic least likely to vote in previous elections are those who fit the Trump voter profile. And yes, there is a “shy Trump voter” factor. We will only understand its size after the election. Watch the initiatives where voters speak directly to tax hikes and tax cuts in Arizona, California, Colorado, Illinois and Arkansas. And the party that stumbles Nov. 3 might look back to 1964, 1974, 1992, 2006/8 to remember that the party declared dead can be back in charge in a few years.
Richard Fowler, chairman of the Center for Black Equity Leadership Council, Democratic strategist and a Fox News contributor
Who will win the White House? Biden
How many electoral votes will he get? 291
Who will win Florida? Trump
Who will win North Carolina? Trump
Who will win Pennsylvania? Biden
Who will win Georgia? Trump
Who will win Texas? Biden
Which party will win the House? Democrats
How many seats will Dems/GOP pick up? Democrats, six seats
Which party will win the Senate? Democrats
How many seats will Dems/GOP pick up? Democrats pick up 5 seats
Who will win the Senate race in Maine? Sara Gideon (D)
Who will win the Senate race in North Carolina? Cal Cunningham (D)
Who will win the Senate race in Iowa? Theresa Greenfield (D)
Who will win the Senate race in Montana? Sen. Steve Daines (R)
Analysis: Elections are about contrast, and the contrast between candidates in this election is so clear that most voters have already made up their minds. With the Democratic Party’s increasing momentum, this election could truly be another blue wave that builds off of gains Democrats made in the House in 2018 and catapults them to a new majority in the Senate.
The lack of clear closing election messaging like what he had in 2016 has made Trump’s reelection bid extremely difficult. With an ever-shrinking base of voters, a Trump win could be almost impossible. Even so, Democrats should hold off on popping champagne. They shouldn’t underestimate the ability of hardened Trump supporters to turn out for the president and his down-ballot allies.
Matt Schlapp, chairman of the American Conservative Union
Who will win the White House? Trump
How many electoral votes will he get? 296
Who will win Florida? Trump
Who will win North Carolina? Trump
Who will win Pennsylvania? Trump
Who will win Georgia? Trump
Who will win Texas? Trump
Which party will win the House? Democrats
How many seats will Dems/GOP pick up? Republicans pick up 12 seats
Which party will win the Senate? Republicans
How many seats will Dems/GOP pick up? Remains 53-47
Who will win the Senate race in Maine? Sen. Susan Collins (R)
Who will win the Senate race in North Carolina? Sen. Thom Tillis (R)
Who will win the Senate race in Iowa? Sen. Joni Ernst (R)
Who will win the Senate race in Montana? Sen. Steve Daines (R)
Analysis: I have spent the last few days talking with in-state experts on the status of the presidential and other races. Initially, I was baffled that these experts are unsure about what data to believe, including those from previous presidential races. Everyone sees a path for a Trump victory, but each had a different idea on the path and the potential size of the victory. The gross disparity between on-the-ground GOP analysis and the national media’s chorus of an inevitable Biden victory is jarring. But then I remembered election eve of 2012 when Team Romney was convinced they had it won and ended up losing every battleground state, and the 2016 media whiff replete with the Democrats’ emotional breakdown at the Javits Center.
Maria Cardona, principal at the Dewey Square Group, Democratic strategist and a CNN contributor
Who will win the White House? Biden
How many electoral votes will he get? 387
Who will win Florida? Biden
Who will win North Carolina? Biden
Who will win Pennsylvania? Biden
Who will win Georgia? Trump
Who will win Texas? Biden
Which party will win the House? Democrats
How many seats will Dems/GOP pick up? Democrats will pick up 13 seats
Which party will win the Senate? Democrats
How many seats will Dems/GOP pick up? Five
Who will win the Senate race in Maine? Sara Gideon (D)
Who will win the Senate race in North Carolina? Sen. Thom Tillis (R)
Who will win the Senate race in Iowa? Theresa Greenfield (D)
Who will win the Senate race in Montana? Steve Bullock (D)
Analysis: Biden is poised to win by a landslide. Even though there seems to have been a last-minute surge by Trump, with his whirlwind COVID-19 super spreader rallies, this race has been very consistent for the last six months or longer. And the blue wave has been gathering strength since the day Trump got elected. The margins he has lost among white voters, especially white suburban women, as well as his diminishing margins with white non-college-educated women, the surge in Black and brown voters as well as young voters, has put this race completely out of reach for Trump. The story of the race will be that Trump’s disastrous mishandling of COVID-19 was the final toppling of a president who was already going in the wrong direction.
Simon Rosenberg, Democratic strategist and president of the think tank NDN
Who will win the White House? Biden
How many electoral votes will he get? 356
Who will win Florida? Biden
Who will win North Carolina? Biden
Who will win Pennsylvania? Biden
Who will win Georgia? BidenWho will win Texas? Trump
Which party will win the House? Democrats
How many seats will Dems/GOP pick up? Democrats pick up 8
Which party will win the Senate? Democrats
How many seats will Dems/GOP pick up? Five, 52-46 on Election Day, with two runoffs
Who will win the Senate race in Maine? Sara Gideon (D)
Who will win the Senate race in North Carolina? Cal Cunningham (D)
Who will win the Senate race in Iowa? Theresa Greenfield (D)
Who will win the Senate race in Montana? Steve Daines (R)
Analysis: Overarching message of the election will be that Trump and Trumpism have failed the nation/Republican Party, and a new, more modern path is needed for the party of Lincoln and Reagan. Biden/Harris will have a significant electoral mandate and will work to both repair what Trump broke and lead America forward to tackle our big challenges – defeating COVID-19, standing the economy back up, restoring America’s global standing and fighting rising illiberalism, tackling climate change, modernizing our immigration system and charting a new, better course on race and inequality. Remarkable Democratic success electorally (more votes in 7 of last 8 general elections) and in governing over past generations will become more widely recognized, as will the contrast of this success with the GOP’s decades of failure.
Brent Budowsky is a columnist for The Hill and was an aide to former Sen. Lloyd Bentsen (D-Texas) and former Rep. Bill Alexander (D-Ark.)
Who will win the White House? Biden
How many electoral votes will he get? 300
Who will win Florida? Trump
Who will win North Carolina? Biden
Who will win Pennsylvania? Biden
Who will win Georgia? BidenWho will win Texas? Trump
Which party will win the House? Democrats
How many seats will Dems/GOP pick up? Democrats pick up 10
Which party will win the Senate? Democrats
How many seats will Dems/GOP pick up? Democrats gain four
Who will win the Senate race in Maine? Sara Gideon (D)
Who will win the Senate race in North Carolina? Cal Cunningham (D)
Who will win the Senate race in Iowa? Sen. Joni Ernst (R)
Who will win the Senate race in Montana? Steve Bullock (D)
Analysis: GOP voter suppression will backfire. COVID-19 will be decisive. Dr. Anthony Fauci will play a decisive role with President Biden. Polls will be closer to right than expected and could underestimate Democrats as likely as underestimating the GOP. The big story will be damage to the GOP by Trump. Senate control will be decided by close margins in seven races. Texas shocker for Democrats is possible. Another big story will be voters moving toward Democrats in Georgia, Texas, Arizona and North Carolina with long-term realigning potential. A mega-story if Biden wins will be a historic rise in power for women in politics.
Armstrong Williams, founder and CEO of Howard Stirks Holdings broadcast media company and host of “The Armstrong Williams Show”
Who will win the White House? Trump
How many electoral votes will he get? 303
Who will win Florida? Trump
Who will win North Carolina? Trump
Who will win Pennsylvania? This state will decide the election
Who will win Georgia? Trump
Who will win Texas? Trump
Which party will win the House? Democrats
How many seats will Dems/GOP pick up? No pickups for Democrats
Which party will win the Senate? Republicans
How many seats will Dems/GOP pick up? Democrats pick up one seat.
Who will win the Senate race in Maine? Sen. Susan Collins (R)
Who will win the Senate race in North Carolina? Sen. Thom Tillis (R)
Who will win the Senate race in Iowa? Sen. Joni Ernst (R)
Who will win the Senate race in Montana? Sen. Steve Daines (R)
Analysis: The pandemic will impact Trump the most and if it didn’t exist, he would win by a landslide. Trump has had everything thrown at him and will survive it all and win, though he will lose the popular vote. The polling industry will be rendered useless and will finally go out of business. We will all stop drinking the fake news media Kool-Aid.
Courtesy/Source: The Hill
