AUGUST 15, 2024
If Kamala Harris wins every battleground state against Trump she would have 320 electoral college votes. Only seven times in the past 50 years has this happened in a presidential election. – 270toWin
Vice President Kamala Harris has received a boost in several recent polls as she seeks to win the White House in November and defeat former President Donald Trump.
The election will be decided in key battleground states that have been won by both Republican and Democratic presidential candidates, and recent polls will be welcome news for Harris’s campaign.
The chances of a landslide victory by either candidate appear remote after President Joe Biden won 302 Electoral College votes in 2020 to Trump’s 232 votes.
However, there have been just seven landslide election victories over the past 50 years, and it hasn’t always been possible to predict when a candidate will win by a huge margin.
In order for Harris to win in a landslide, she would have to triumph in almost every battleground state, including those won by Trump in 2020 and 2016. Harris could reach a landslide by winning some states that are not usually in play for Democrats, such as Texas, but that appears to be a long shot.
A major Harris victory could entail winning up to 320 Electoral College votes, but the path to that result is difficult.
Newsweek reached out to the Harris campaign for comment.
In 2012, former President Barack Obama won 332 Electoral College votes in a victory that saw the Democrat win Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio and Florida, among other states. Florida and Ohio are no longer considered competitive for Democrats.
Two states—Maine and Nebraska—split their Electoral College votes between statewide votes and votes in their congressional districts. In 2020, Biden won three of Maine’s Electoral College votes, and Trump won one.
Similarly, four of Nebraska’s Electoral College votes went to Trump, while Biden took one. It remains to be seen if a landslide would affect how the two states’ votes are split.
Here’s a look at the state of play in key states and what it might mean for a potential landslide win.
Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin
The key to victory in both the 2016 and 2020 elections was winning Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, though neither Trump nor Biden’s victory was a landslide.
Trump narrowly won all three states in 2016, and Biden flipped them in 2020 when he also won by narrow margins.
Poll tracker FiveThirtyEight’s polling average shows Harris with a narrow lead in Michigan of 46.2 percent to Trump’s 42.8 percent. She also leads in Pennsylvania with 45.8 percent to Trump’s 44.2 percent—an extremely narrow margin.
In Wisconsin, FiveThirtyEight’s average shows Harris ahead with 47.3 percent to Trump’s 44.1 percent.
These three states will be key to winning the White House, whether there’s a landslide or a narrow victory.
Democratic presidential candidate U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign rally at United Auto Workers Local 900 on August 8, 2024 in Wayne, Michigan. Harris has received a boost in recent polling. – Andrew Harnik/Getty Images
Arizona and Nevada
The presidential race could come down to the wire in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina, as recent polling shows the margin of victory could be razor-thin in each state.
Biden won Arizona in 2020 after Trump won it four years earlier, and this year, it could be too close to call. FiveThirtyEight’s polling average shows Harris leading with 45.1 percent to Trump’s 44.8 percent.
Biden scored a relatively narrow victory in Nevada in 2020, though the state hasn’t given its Electoral College votes to a Republican since 2004.
Nonetheless, FiveThirtyEight’s polling average shows Harris leading with 44.5 percent support to former President Trump’s 43.9 percent in the state.
Georgia and North Carolina
It’s a similarly close picture in Georgia, where President Biden won a surprise victory in 2020 in what has long been seen as a red state. According to FiveThirtyEight, Trump is leading Harris in Georgia with 45.8 percent to the vice president’s 45.7 percent.
North Carolina seems an unlikely pickup for the Democrats, as Trump won there in both 2016 and 2020. The state hasn’t voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 2008.
FiveThirtyEight does not currently provide a polling average for North Carolina, but recent polls suggest the race is close.
A YouGov Blue poll conducted among 802 registered voters from August 5 to 9 showed Harris and Trump tied at 46 percent.
However, a Trafalgar Group poll conducted among 1,082 likely voters from August 6 to 8 showed Trump with 49 percent to Harris’s 45 percent.
Unlikely Victories
President Biden’s narrow victory in Georgia in 2020 was a major surprise, and it’s possible that unexpected wins could propel Harris into the White House.
Texas has often been discussed as a potential pickup for Democrats in the long term, and one recent poll shows Harris closing the gap with Trump in the Lone Star State.
An ActiVote survey of 400 likely voters in Texas showed Trump with 53.3 percent to Harris’s 46.6 percent. The poll was conducted between July 31 and August 13, and the results have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.
That’s a Trump lead of 6.6 percent, but an ActiVote poll conducted just days before President Joe Biden ended his reelection bid and endorsed Harris for the 2024 Democratic nominee in July, Trump was leading in Texas by 8.8 percent.
However, a Harris win in Texas seems unlikely and would amount to a political earthquake. No Democratic presidential candidate has won the state since 1976.
Florida was long considered a swing state, but it’s trended more Republican recently and may be out of reach for Democrats in 2024. Trump won the Sunshine State in 2016 and 2020.
A Suffolk University poll conducted among 500 likely voters from August 7 to 11 found Trump leading with 47 percent support to Harris’s 42 percent.
Ohio, once considered a bellwether of presidential elections, has become solidly Republican in recent cycles. A Democratic presidential candidate has not won the state since 2012.
A Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research poll conducted among 600 likely voters from July 23 to 28 showed Trump’s 52 percent support in Ohio compared to Harris’s 42 percent.
Courtesy: Newsweek
