MAY 25, 2018
The popularity of the Narendra Modi government has declined in four years, according to the Mood of the Nation poll conducted by CSDS-Lokniti. But the NDA is likely to retain power at the Centre if the elections were held today. Narendra Modi continues to be the first choice of the voters for prime ministerial role.
The NDA is expected to win 274 of 543 Lok Sabha seats as per the prevailing mood of the voters in the country, the CSDS-Lokniti survey said. The NDA had won 323 seats in 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Interestingly, the NDA is likely to gain more votes – improving from 36 per cent in 2014 to 37 per cent in 2018.
The UPA, on the other hand, has gained voters’ confidence in the last four years but not enough to swing the balance of power at the Centre. The UPA is likely to get 164 seats if the elections were held today. The Congress-led alliance had won 60 seats in 2014 when Modi wave swept most of the North Indian plains. The UPA’s vote share is likely to improve from 25 per cent in 2014 to 31 per cent.
Others are likely to suffer both in terms of seats and vote share. The number of seats declines from 153 to 105 while vote share dips by seven per cent from 39 per cent to 32 per cent.
While the NDA suffers loss of seats in the north and west-central parts of the country, its gaining significantly in the east and maintains its hold in the south. The NDA had won 58 seats with 33 per cent vote share in the east in 2014. The number is likely to go up to 86-94 with 43 per cent vote share in 2018.
MOOD OF THE NATION
In the west-central, NDA is likely suffer a loss of upto 30 seats with a dip in vote share of about five per cent. The UPA is likely to gain about seven per cent in vote share.
The real loss for the BJP-led NDA comes from the north where it had won 134 seats with 45 per cent vote share compared to eight seats with 21 per cent votes secured by the UPA. If elections were held today, the NDA would get 86-94 seats with 39 per cent votes.
The south seems to be going with the UPA this time. It had favoured others in 2014 but UPA was likely to gain immensely if elections were held today, according to the Mood of the Nation poll.
The Mood of the Nation polls suggests that though Narendra Modi’s popularity has marginally declined, he is the first choice of the voters as PM. Rahul Gandhi, the Congress president, has improved his stature in public opinion with 24 per cent favouring him as the PM candidate. In 2014, 16 per cent thought he should be the prime minister.
PM PREFERENCE
Unemployment is the biggest problem for the country as 26 per cent of the respondents in the Mood of the Nation poll gave maximum weightage to lack of jobs followed by poverty (13 per cent), price rise (10 per cent), corruption (6 per cent) and farmers’ issues (5 per cent).
Courtesy/Source: India Today
