February 23, 2016
The GOP battle for the 2016 nomination may be one of attitude and outlook rather than policies, according to an analysis of the presidential debates.
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks to supporters during a primary night rally on Feb. 9 in Manchester, N.H.
February 23, 2016
The GOP battle for the 2016 nomination may be one of attitude and outlook rather than policies, according to an analysis of the presidential debates.
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks to supporters during a primary night rally on Feb. 9 in Manchester, N.H.
Using debate transcripts, data scientist Alex Petralia calculated the sentiments of both Republican and Democratic presidential candidates, looking at whether their language during the contests was positive or negative.
On the Democratic side, both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders used mostly positive language early on, according to Petralia's analysis. Though in the Feb. 11 debate – which fell shortly after primaries actually got underway – sentiments went a little bit south.
Among the Republican candidates, Ted Cruz, Rubio and the now departed Jeb Bush were mostly positive, while Chris Christie, who dropped out of the race after the New Hampshire primary, sometimes delved relatively deeply into the negative.
Donald Trump was by far the most negative candidate, dipping to even 13 percent in one debate, meaning only 13 percent of the phrases he used were positive.
"Trump's negativity, at this point, is his identity," Petralia says. "He would certainly lose popularity if he became more positive because that is not the Donald Trump we know."
Trump has received criticism from both sides of the aisle for his negativity. GOP South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, for example, spent part of her State of the Union rebuttal implicitly attacking Trump instead of President Barack Obama. She later endorsed Rubio.
Yet Trump's rhetoric about the state of the U.S. has clearly resonated within the GOP electorate, as his front-running status ahead of Cruz and Rubio shows. A reason why: In a January Gallup poll, half of Americans said they were better off than they were eight years ago, while 42 percent said they were not. While that may seem pretty good, in comparison with past responses, it's not: In January 2000, 73 percent of Americans said they were better off, with just 19 percent saying they weren't.
What's more, among Republicans and those leaning that way, 66 percent in the recent survey said they were not better off now, while 29 percent said they were. There were steep breakdowns by age, too. Among Republicans or Republican leaners 65 and older, a stunning 82 percent said they weren't better off now compared with eight years ago. Of 45- to 64-year-olds, 76 percent thought they weren't better off.
These groups are part of Trump's core supporters, of course. In South Carolina, where Trump won Saturday's GOP primary, he led decisively among voters 45 and older (who reportedly made up 73 percent of those who cast a GOP ballot), according to exit polling. Among younger voters, he tied with Cruz, and outpaced Rubio by just 1 point. In New Hampshire, where Trump also won, 68 percent of Republican primary voters were 45 or older, and Trump was their favorite.
Trump supporters also have a more negative outlook than other Republican primary or caucus voters, according to a USA Today/Suffolk University national poll from Feb. 11-15. Of people who said they thought the country was going in the wrong direction, 36 percent planned to vote for Trump, followed by 22 percent who supported Cruz. Voters who said the country was moving in the right direction favored Rubio with 30 percent support, while 24 percent said they would favor Trump.
Courtesy: U.S. News & World Report
