October 8, 2012
With his march to South Waziristan, Imran Khan has managed to propel the issue of America's covert drone operation into headlines around the world. Can this also be part of a journey that leads him next year into the position of prime minister?
October 8, 2012
With his march to South Waziristan, Imran Khan has managed to propel the issue of America's covert drone operation into headlines around the world. Can this also be part of a journey that leads him next year into the position of prime minister?
The past two days have been spent bumping through one of the most dangerous corners of Pakistan. The road to South Waziristan is long, potholed and leads ever closer to al-Qaeda and Taliban strongholds.
Few of Pakistan's best-known politicians would ever travel here. Fewer still would have the charisma and sureness needed to lead hundreds of peace campaigners – including 30 or so middle-aged women from America – on a demonstration to the gates of the country's lawless, tribal regions.
But Imran Khan has managed it, propelling the issue of America's covert drone operation into headlines around the world. That alone is some achievement. At the same time, it will bolster his political party's support in a forgotten region of Pakistan.
Could it also be part of a journey that leads him next year into the position of prime minister?
After years in the political wilderness since quitting cricket in the 1990s, Imran's stock has risen rapidly. His anti-corruption message has drawn new followers and a monster rally in Lahore, where he attracted more than 100,000 supporters, has made the ruling political elite sit up and take notice. His political opponents are labeling him Taliban Khan for his anti-American rhetoric and questions remain about his links to the military.
Elections due next year are certain to see the former all-rounder pick up seats. But how many?
Although in interviews he maintains that he is due a historic landslide, there are signs that his campaign may be losing momentum. The defections to his Movement of Justice party triggered by the Lahore "tipping point" have slowed, and there is constant talk of splits within the party leadership about what level of sleaze is acceptable in a new arrival if they bring the prospect of a seat with them.
That question may be the cause of a recent dip in polling fortunes. A leaked survey of 6000 voters conducted by the International Republican Institute, suggest Khan's PTI (its Urdu initials) has lost ground in two key battlegrounds – the swing province of Khyber-Pakhtunkwa and his own backyard in Punjab. Nationally, the figures suggest his support has dropped by 9 per cent to 24 per cent – putting him behind the main PML-N opposition party of Nawaz Sharif.
But beware the polls. Pakistan's first-past-the-post system means election results are difficult to divine from national surveys. Then there are the rural vote banks, controlled by feudal landlords who can ensure thousands of tenant farmers vote according to instruction. Imran's PTI lacks the constituency organizations to challenge, runs the orthodox view.
Some diplomats believe the ruling Pakistan People's Party will emerge as the biggest single party, so long as wheat prices and other commodities mean life in its farming heartlands remains profitable. In fact, Imran's biggest impact may be to nick seats from Sharif, helping President Asif Ali Zardari stay in power.
So most sensible analysts suggest a haul of 20 or 25 seats for Imran. A breakthrough to be sure, but far short of the magic number of 172 needed for a majority.
That does not mean he can't have a wider impact. His anti-corruption efforts, his recognition that aid is preventing Pakistan reforming its own tax system and his threat to sweep away a dynastic political system mired in graft are just what this country needs. If he can continue to get ordinary voters to connect their difficult circumstances with the failings of a rarefied political elite, then Imran will change Pakistan for the better – even if he isn't prime minister.
Courtesy: Daily Telegraph
