First Take: Clinton win halts Sanders momentum as battle heads to southern races

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February 21, 2016

RENO, NEVADA – Hillary Clinton’s victory in Nevada halts the momentum of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who trounced her earlier this month in New Hampshire, and the win may begin a streak as the battle heads to a series of southern-voting states that favor her.

February 21, 2016

RENO, NEVADA – Hillary Clinton’s victory in Nevada halts the momentum of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who trounced her earlier this month in New Hampshire, and the win may begin a streak as the battle heads to a series of southern-voting states that favor her.

Hillary Clinton scans for a member of the audience who had asked a question during a women's health discussion on Feb. 15, 2016, at the University of Nevada in Reno, Nev.

The decisive outcome, as opposed to her narrowest of victories in Iowa, mirrors her successful margin over then-Sen. Barack Obama in 2008. Saturday's win came as a result of a strong ground operation that’s been in place since early last year and reflects her strength with the state’s sizable minority populations. Recent polling had showed the two running neck-and-neck.

Bolstered by strong support from unions and an exhaustive effort targeting Latinos and other minorities, Clinton accomplished something she failed to do in New Hampshire’s Feb. 9 primary. She overcame the enthusiasm of young voters and working-class whites responding to Sanders’ message about a “rigged economy” and income inequality.

“Some may have doubted us, but we never doubted each other,” Clinton said appearing at a victory party with her supporters at Caesar’s Palace.

In a gesture to the young voters who’ve been behind Sanders, Clinton said she would soon propose an “exciting” national service program. She also cited the water crisis in Flint, Michigan, her commitment to cracking down on Wall Street and the need to break down “every barrier that holds you back.”

“The fight goes on, the future we want is within our grasp,” said Clinton.

The result enhances her advantage on Feb. 27, when South Carolina votes, said Rep. James Clyburn, a South Carolina Democrat who this week threw his support behind Clinton. While he predicted the broader nominating battle will run into March, he called to begin healing party divisions.

In South Carolina, Clinton leads Sanders by 22 points, according to a recent Bloomberg Politics poll. While there are some March 1 states that will favor Sanders, like Colorado and Massachusetts, Clinton has a significant ground operation in larger, delegate-rich states such as Ohio, Michigan and Florida that vote later in the month. Still, in a speech addressing supporters, Sanders insisted "we have got an excellent chance to win many of those states."

"We have come a very long way in nine months," said Sanders. "The wind is at our backs," he said, "predicting one of the great political upsets in the history of the United States."

Clinton’s path to victory in Nevada ran through Clark County, where about 74% of the state's active registered Democrats live. Most of Nevada's 48.5% non-white population also lives in the Vegas area, and Clinton was the favorite among many of the union-affiliated workers who work on the Las Vegas strip.

A few last-minute moves may have been critical to her success. One was an emotional ad her campaign released in the last week featuring a 10-year-old girl who showed up at a campaign event and broke down in tears over deportation letters her parents had received. Another was Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, who saw that Clinton was potentially in trouble in the state. Over the past couple weeks, he made calls to several casino owners, who gave their workers 3-hour paid breaks to go and caucus.

According to exit poll data, older women came out in force for Clinton, who also got her strongest support among voters who consider themselves moderates. Women accounted for a larger share of caucus goers, by 12 points, and they gave Clinton a 16-point advantage.

A large majority of black caucus-goers supported Clinton, while whites and Hispanics were more evenly divided. Early results showed Sanders leading Clinton with Latinos. If that holds, his campaign will tout that, along with the fact that, five weeks ago, Sanders had been behind Clinton by 25 points in some polls.

Sanders said he was “proud” of the “fact that we have brought many working people and young people into the political process and believe that we have the wind at our back as we head toward Super Tuesday.”

Sanders performed best among voters considering themselves very liberal, and many of them cited the fact that he is “honest and trustworthy” as the most important trait. He also did well with political independents.


Courtesy: USA Today